"Can it be realistic to assume that there will be no major slump in the major capitalist economies over the next ten to 15 years?
A slump as the UK economy experienced in 2008-9 would deliver much more long-lasting damage to national income than even a ‘bad Brexit’ deal. I calculate that the UK economy, like all the other major economies in the Long Depression that has taken place in the last ten years, has experienced a permanent relative loss in GDP – in the UK’s case of over 25%. In other words, the UK economy has had average growth some one-quarter slower since 2008 than it did before. Even if it continued to grow at around 2% over the next ten years with no impact from Brexit, that relative loss from the Great Recession would reach 40% by 2030. That would be four times as much as the worst outcome from Brexit."
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