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Jared Diamond on Literacy in Iraq

Even some of the best researchers make terrible blunders. Here is my email to Jared Diamond: It's a fascinating book [ Guns, Germs and Steel ] and I salute you for your approach and research. I am on p. 216 (1999 edition.) of your book. I was struck by this statement: "For example, today almost all Japanese and Scandinavians are literate but most Iraqis are not: why did writing nevertheless arise nearly four thousand years earlier in Iraq?" The CIA World Factbook ( quoted by wikipedia ) estimates that in 2000 the adult literacy rate in Iraq was 84 percent for males and 64 percent for females, with UN figures suggesting a small fall in literacy of Iraqis aged 15–24 between 2000 and 2008, from 84.8% to 82.4. That despite the sactions and the invasion and its consequences. Under the brutal dictatorship of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi education system was one of the best if not the best among the Arab countries.
How could any society fail to recognize that big problems are looming up, and why doesn’t the society take measures to alert disaster?  It was surprise  at this question that caused the archaeologist Joseph Tainter, in his 1988 book The Collapse of Complex Societies, to dismiss out of hand the possibility that complex societies could collapse as a result of depleting environmental resources.  Tainter considered it implausible that complex “societies [would] sit by and watch the encroaching weakness without taking corrective actions.”  But that is precisely what has often happened in the past, and what is happening under our eyes today.  Hence my chapter draws up a roadmap of group decision-making, starting with failure to perceive a problem in its initial stages, and ending with refusal to address the problem because of conflicts of interest and other reasons. — Jared Diamond