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Between Sanctions and War

Between 1918 and 1998, US administrations restricted trade with sanctioned nations 115 times; 64 of these occasions were during the 1990s, and most of them were unilateral. By 1997, the equivalent of half the world’s population was living under some form of US sanction.

Current debates within the EU over what to do about Russia have led to some rhetorical contortions. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen appeared to support the US position that ‘Nord Stream 2 could not be excluded a priori from the list of [preventive] sanctions’, adding, ‘We want to build the world of tomorrow as democracies with like-minded partners.’ But among the energy partners that might replace Russia, Von der Leyen cited an oil monarchy (Qatar), a dictatorship allied with authoritarian Turkey (Azerbaijan) and a country under military rule (Egypt)...

Playing the white knight calls for spotlessly clean hands. You might think whistleblower Julian Assange, sought by the US and locked up in London, was a dream candidate for political asylum, but no EU member is willing to grant it. And faced with the migration crisis, the 27 member states have ceased to respect the 1951 Refugee Convention. On the eve of the French presidency, Amnesty International expressed concern about the infringement of civil liberties within the EU. Suffering from a persistent ‘democratic deficit’, is the EU really in a position to lecture others? The US, meanwhile, has ratified only five of the 18 international human rights treaties.

Russia and China do not reject the principle of sanctions. Since 1971, China has limited its trade relations with countries that recognise Taiwan. And Russia suspended chartered flights to Turkey in 2015, reintroduced visas and imposed an embargo on fruit and vegetables after the Turkish army shot down a Russian plane on the Syrian border. But Russia and China prefer unofficial action over formal unilateral measures…

Despite this new activism, Russia and China accounted for only 3% of sanctions-related activity (impositions, suspensions, extensions, court rulings) in 2020, well behind the US (53%). Their restraint is partly down to economic reality: neither China nor Russia has the weapon of the dollar.

Compared to China and Russia, Europe seemed to be resigned to impotence. The EU suffered from, but didn’t really react to, the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018... no European group has proved willing to buy Iranian oil: insurance companies won’t guarantee the cargos of the few shipping companies willing to transport it.

Russia’s recognition of the self-proclaimed Donbass republics (Donetsk and Luhansk), which violated the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, was a sign that eight years of Western sanctions had failed… The old taboos have gone. For the first time in its history, the EU has announced that it will deliver arms to Ukraine, and Germany will massively increase its defence spending. 

Le Monde Diplomatique



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