“Geostrategically, it is a triumph for Washington and Israel.” —Tari Ali
Reminder
“The world order, led by the United States, Europe, Russia, Iran and Israel, colluded with double standards to keep the [Syrian] regime alive, while being aware of its brutality over the decades, especially since the revolution in 2011, which it militarized, killing hundreds of thousands and forcing half of the Syrian people to be displaced internally and seek refuge abroad, exceeding 13 million Syrians, making Syria the first country exporting refugees in the world.” Translated from Arabic
Before his demise the UAE and the US, writes the BBC’s Jeremy Bowen “were trying to find incentives for him to break the alliance with Tehran, relaxing sanctions and allowing Assad to continue his international rehabilitation.”
Now, in order to further undermine the Russian regime’s influence in the country as well as Iran, the US and the UK consider removing Ha’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the ‘terror list’. The consideration by two major imperialist powers confirms a long tradition in who decides whether a group or an organisation is ’terrorist’. Today’s ‘terrorists’ may baptised as ‘the ones we can make deals with’ and tomorrow’s ‘freedom fighters’ may become our enemies who are against ‘our way of life and threaten our interests’. The former-al-Qaeda affiliate is now a ‘freedom fighter’ (remember ‘our al-mujadin of Afghanistan’) who toppled a brutal dictator.
We will hear more of ‘human rights’ drum beats. It is another opportunity for young people and white, and non white, Western students, to join the NGOs industrial complex to save Syrian women from brown Muslim men.
Calls for election will be the order of the day. The factions that united to topple Assad will, as Turkey wants, maintain the existing institutions. These factions are mainly men in arms. They do not have a mass movement with a revolutionary programme for the economy, fundamental rights and an alternative to the Turkish or Western economic model. Nor do they challenge the imperialist interest or the Israeli ones in the region. Conflicts among the factions will eventually arise.
Iran, Russia, Iraq, the Kurds, and ‘the Axis of Resistance’ will be the main losers from Assad's downfall. The major Western powers, Israel and Turkey are the main winners.
It should be noted, as Jospeh Dhar argues, that “Neither the US nor Israel had a hand in these events, in fact, they were worried about the events leading up to now. Israeli officials, for example, declared that the ‘collapse of the Assad regime would likely create chaos in which military threats against Israel would develop.’ Moreover, since 2011, Israel has never really been in favour of the Syrian regime being overthrown.
“In July 2018 Netanyahu had no objection to Assad taking back control of the country and stabilising his power. He said Israel would only act against perceived threats, such as Iran and Hezbollah’s forces/influence, explaining, “We haven’t had a problem with the Assad regime, for 40 years not a single bullet was fired on the Golan Heights”. Indeed, “the Syrian regime didn’t respond to Israel’s war on Gaza, despite also facing attacks. Indeed, it has been avoiding any direct confrontation with Israel since 1974.”
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What next?
HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has thus far maintained the Syrian government’s administrative framework, including its prime minister and state institutions, while pledging to respect all sects. He has extended overtures to Russia and allowed Christians and other minorities to remain in cities unharmed.
“It’s a very sterile revolution, so to say,” Khoja told Middle East Eye. “From the launch of the operation to the local practices, Turkey’s influence is evident at every step.”
He notes that many of Jolani’s actions - such as establishing a transitional government and promoting national peace and reconciliation - mirror concepts the Syrian opposition had discussed in workshops involving Russian officials for years.
While Jolani is his own man, this operation clearly points to a mastermind behind the scenes," Khoja remarked.
Can Acun, a regional expert at the Ankara-based SETA think tank highlights that Turkey has already created a governance model in northern Syria following its operations against the Islamic State group and Kurdish forces.
This model includes the Syrian Interim Government, the Syrian National Army, local governance based on assemblies, and an integrated local economy.
“Maintaining existing institutions is essential,” Acun told MEE. “Turkey must establish a mechanism to support this process by providing technical capacity and addressing critical needs.” (My emphasis N.M)
“The rebels have agreed that Assad’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali, should continue to oversee the state for the time being.” Tariq Ali question the current set up: “Will this be a form of Assadism without Assad, even if the country is about to pivot geopolitically away from Russia and what remains of the ‘Resistance Axis’?
“Like Iraq and Libya, where the US has a lock on the oil,” Ali reminds us, “Syria will now become a shared American–Turkish colony. US imperial policy, globally, is to break up countries that cannot be swallowed whole and remove all meaningful sovereignty in order to assert economic and political hegemony.”
Sayed Hossein Moussvian, a liberal, thinks that there are two scenario for Syria. “Regarding the political future of Syria, two scenarios can be imagined: a peaceful transition to a new system; or a Libyan and Sudanese-style outcome.
A peaceful transition could be achieved if the opposition continues with its moderate rhetoric and actions. However, it is composed of diverse and fragmented groups that have united solely to eliminate a common enemy.
Dispelling illusion
“Alongside ignoring the agency of local Syrian actors, writes Dahr, “the main issue with the argument promoted by the supporters of the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ within the Palestinian solidarity movement, is that it suggests liberation of Palestine will come from above. These states, despite their reactionary and authoritarian nature, and neoliberal economic orientation, will somehow deliver freedom. This ignores that their foreign policies are shaped by the need to protect their own political interests, and that regional authoritarian states have repeatedly betrayed and repressed the Palestinians.”
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Turkey will also strive to have a leading role in the future restructuring of the Syrian economy. Maintaining existing institutions would facilitate capital accumulation for the Turkish companies. All this of course if regional and local forces succeed in avoiding dragging Syria into more conflicts.
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