By Jorge Martin
Political earthquake in Germany. Or rather, two political earthquakes in one night, one in Berlin, the other in Mecklenburg - Western Pomerania. To which you have to add the other political earthquake two weeks ago in Saxony-Anhalt.
Merz is in difficulties. Visibly shaken on election night, he vowed to continue with his government's program of "reforms" - read an all out assault on pensions, the health service and long-term care.
Let's recap. On Sept 6, the ruling party CDU was decisively defeated in Saxony-Anhalt, losing 20 percentage points (from 37 to 17), with the reactionary right populist AfD winning a clear victory, with over 43% of the vote.
Tonight, the CDU has received less than 5% of the vote in Mecklenburg West Pomerania, a crushing defeat, which will mean the party will not be represented in the state parliament for the first time in history! The AfD has come first, with over 38% of the vote, 21 points more than 5 years ago.
In Berlin, the left wing Die Linke has won the election, with 25% of the vote, more than doubling its previous result in 2023 and increasing from 185,000 to over 480,000, in an election which has seen an increased turnout. Here, the CDU was the first party last time round, with 28%, it has now collapsed to 18%.
Part of the election appeal for Die Linke in Berlin was that it campaigned heavily on the crucial question of housing, promising to strengthen tenant's rights, to nationalise all large corporate landlords and to introduce rent controls - as demanded by a popular referendum a few years ago.
A few other interesting points from the actual results. In both elections there was a clear 10 percentage point gender gap, with men more likely to vote for the AfD and women more likely to vote for left and centre-left options.
In terms of age, there is also a clear differential in voting patern, with older voters more likely to support the old established parties (SPD - CDU) and the youth voting overwhelmingly for the parties seen as more extreme on the right and the left (AfD, Die Linke).
In Mecklenburg Western Pomerania for instance, while Die Linke overall loses votes (coming 5th with 8%) among 16-24 year olds it is the second party and receives 24% (the AfD is first with 34%).
In Berlin it is a similar story, with the youth voting overwhelmingly for Die Linke: 43% among 16-24 year olds and 48% among 25-34 year olds.
When it comes to occupation, the AfD is in both elections, the main party among blue collar workers - 51% in MVP and 29% in Berlin.
These results put the ruling CDU-SPD coalition under increased pressure. Nationally, the AfD is polling at 29% (9 points up from the election last year), while the CDU is at 20% (8.5 points down), and the SPD at 13% (3 points down).
It is not difficult to see why. A coalition of the main establishment parties is presiding over an extremely serious economic crisis, with tens of thousands of industrial jobs being destroyed, carrying out a massive counter-reform of health care and pensions, while at the same time is increasing military spending, whipping up anti-Russian war hysteria and funneling billions to the black hole of the war in Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine plays a crucial role in the political and economic crisis. Sanctions on Russia have delivered a severe blow to German industry and German consumers, in the form of higher energy prices. This is compounded by the rise of China as a technologically developed industrial giant - Germany had a trade surplus with it, it now has a trade deficit.
The AfD agitation against funding the war in Ukraine and in favour of restoring trade relations with Russia are obviously very popular. How could they not be? Of course, these are combined with reactionary scapegoating of migrants and other reactionary policies against women, for "traditional family values", etc.
Any idea that a "firewall" composed of all these unpopular parties could stop the rise of the AfD has completely backfired. It is precisely the opposite. The AfD is capitalising the protest vote against the capitalist establishment.
Die Linke's election victory in Berlin is significant, but the party is saddled by its willingness to participate in the so-called "democratic firewall", in effect propping up the reactionary capitalist government carrying out an assault on the working class.
In MVP, the party is already junior partner of a coalition with the SPD and in Saxony-Anhalt, Die Linke said it was open to allow a minority CDU government.
Die Linke is clearly divided on the question of solidarity with Palestine and opposition to Israel's genocide, with the leadership opposing these policies. This can have a serious impact on government formation in Berlin, where the Greens have already said they are not prepared to collaborate with "an anti-Semitic party".
These three elections, and more to come, provide a snapshot of the situation in Germany. Europe's most powerful capitalist economy, which used the Euro debt crisis of 2011-15 to impose hard monetarist anti-working class austerity on the weaker economies of Portugal, Spain, Italy and above all Greece, now finds itself right at the centre of the storm of an unsolvable crisis of capitalism.
The quick collapse in support for the CDU-SPD grand coalition government, which came to power only in May 25, is the result of this situation, one which has no solution in the short and medium term and which will provoke further political instability and class struggle.
The rise of the AfD is a distorted, reactionary, reflection of the anti-establishment anger. The rise of Die Linke in Berlin, particularly among the youth, reflects a similar anger on the opposite side of the spectrum. However, Die Linke is not a new party, it has been in power in several states as part of coalition governments, it has dreadful position on Palestine and voted in the regional chamber for the formation of Merz's cabinet.
What is required in Germany, and elsewhere, is a clear revolutionary alternative against the whole of the rotten capitalist system.
21 September 2026
Comments