Via Michael Roberts
Poland, the largest Eastern European country, goes to the polls today. The socially conservative Law and Justice party government is expected to increase its vote share in the election.
The centre-right Civic Platform — which ruled Poland from 2007 to 2015 with EU President Donald Tusk remains unpopular because of its previous austerity measures in line with EU policy. In contrast, Law and Justice has raised welfare benefits. The flagship policy was a child benefit scheme, dubbed 500+, that pledged a monthly payment of 500 zlotys for every second and subsequent child, a sum that could provide larger families with the equivalent of another salary. And now the government is offering a sharply higher minimum wage which would increase in steps from 2,250 zlotys (€511) today to 4,000 zlotys by the end of 2023 — a 78 per cent jump.
This is the basis of support for Law and Justice probably despite its promotion of Catholic-infused conservative values; and its nasty attacks on gay rights and civic rights in support of the 'family'.
As for the left, the three main left-wing groups have joined forces in a new Lewica coalition that could win about 13 per cent of the vote and make it the third-largest group in parliament. This leaves a faint possibility that a broad coalition of opposition parties could club together to try and form a government.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Poland suffered a 'shock therapy' transition to capitalism, that drove millions abroad to look for work. In 2004, it joined the EU. The economy benefited from EU membership and funding (without joining the single currency). The economy has not been in a technical recession since 1992, although it was close several times. Based on purchasing power parity, Poles are now richer than the Greeks and closing in on the Portuguese.
However, the new government is facing much more difficult times ahead. Poland's largest trading partner, Germany, is in virtual recession and world trade is stagnant. Poland's growth rate, like the rest of Europe, is slowing and the prospect of a global slump is looming. And the EU is planning to cut social and regional funding.