There's absolutely no guarantees that Putin will stop his warmongering afterwards.
Ned Ma
Stephen John Goldthorp you need to explain why.
Stephen John Goldthorp
Ned Ma I already have under the reply to Edward Iley who beat you to that question. Suffice to say. Putin's demands are geared towards making future invasions even easier. Not towards Peace. Putin's previous record gives doubt that anything he says can be trusted. But he has sunk serious investment into trying to conquer Ukraine and failing.
Ned Ma
Stephen John Goldthorp “Putin's demands are geared towards making future invasions even easier.” You haven't explained why. Why did Putin invade Ukraine and why doesn't want 'peace'?
Stephen John Goldthorp
Ned Ma why is hard, maybe Putin isn't as smart as he thinks he is or as smart as everyone else makes him out to be. Putin doesn't seem to be able to form trusting relationships either on a personal level or with other countries. He has utter contempt for Liberal Democracy and seems to believe that all governments are either really just Aurocracies or that democracies will crumb into Dictatorships. His foreign policy has been to fund more Authoritarian/extremist fringe parties across Europe in order to push his beliefs along. He grew up in the USSR when it was a Superpower and held much of Eastern Europe under its control. He isn't an ideological Communist, despite being a party member (everyone was). But he does appear to be salty about its break up. So quite a lot of his foreign and domestic policy seems to be based around trying to make Russia 'Great Again'. Albeit more along Ultraconservstive/Ultranationist/Reactionary/Authoritarian/Fascist lines. His attitude towards other human people is one of indifference or killing them if they seem a threat. So he lacks compassion, empathy and respect for human rights.
Ned Ma
Stephen John Goldthorp 90% of you explanation is about the individual. No context, no political economy, no sociology, i.e. Russian political economy and the social dynamic inside Russia since at least 2014. Even in political science courses they don't treat the subject in that way. Although individuals play a role in influencing and direcring policies, they do not act outside a context, local and global.
Stephen John Goldthorp
Ned Ma You said why. Why is Personal motivation and psychological. Putin is an Autocrat and he runs the country as such. Since alot of his decisions are how the country are run. In the past, the decision aspect of government ground to a halt when he was either ill or on holiday. There's a lot more weight that can be given to Putin's mental state, which is what the Why question is mainly focused about.
From a country point of view, given Russia's aging population and Rippling high and low birth rates by generations due to past trauma (Russian Civil War, WWI, WWII, Collapse of the USSR), have all left troughs in the next generation of births.
The population decline might provide an incentive for Putin to go to war now, giving Russia's declining and aging population has not been offset by immigration.
However, it seems like the absolute worst thing to inflict upon Russia is more losses of young people of soldier/conscription age.
Unless he underestimated the resistance of Ukraine and thought it would be a cake walk.
From an individual point of view, perhaps it might create a 'now or never' psychological effect on Putin. Very similar to how past dictators or Monarchs have engaged in a war out of fear of decline.
Putin's reasons for gravitating more towards Authoritarian Right Wing (i.e. Fascism) would be due to the collapse of 'Communism' (not very communist in practice, more state capitalist) and the disasterous impact of the chaotic Neoliberal shock capitalism of the 90s for Russia.
Both of these creating less favourable ground for support, than Ultranationalist approaches of trying to unity the country with social cohesion.
Economically, both the current Russian Federation and the former USSR are/were both heavily dependent on Oil/Gas exports for a source of government income, about 30% to 33% of its income is derived from these Exports to lucrative markets in Europe. Putin's pipelines to Europe as created a form of influence on country's like Germany, threaten to cut them off and plunge Europe into economic hardship from lacking those resoruces.
Of course, reliance on Exports is a double edged sword. If your customers decide to embargo and go elsewhere and are prepared to take the hit to their economy. Then Russia is in trouble. Part of the reason for the collapse of the USSR, was a low in Oil/Gas which impacted the ability for the government to pay its way.
Ukraine undermines Putin's strategy for dominanting Europe's Oil/Gas supplies.
Since it's independence means it could undercut Russia and sell cheaper.
Much of Putin's early terms were spent bullying Ukraine on occassion. Turning off supplies and then trying to double or triple, etc. the price of supply.
So resource wise, Putin might have some motivations there, his alliance with Right wing parties who are usually more anti-green energy and more pro-fossil fuels, could show some insight.
Again, war doesn't make sense due to risk of embargos, unless Putin just felt that the West wouldn't, couldn't take the risk.
Ned Ma
Stephen John Goldthorp The authoritarian aspect. China's state/regime is also authoritarian. Why has not China been invading other countries? Iran too is authoritarian. Population decline? Japan has much poulation decline than Russia. Is it thinking of invading other countries? Russia is 'dependent on Oil/Gas exports for a source of government income, about 30% to 33% of its income is derived from these Exports to lucrative markets in Europe.'. 38% of Russian hydrocarbons go to China. Here, you have started touching on the structural instead of the one-dimentional approach. 'The ability for the government to pay its way'. Pays its way into what? Needs explanation. “War doesn't make sense due to risk of embargos, unless Putin just felt that the West wouldn't, couldn't take the risk.” Are you speaking in the past, conditional or future. Your sentence is not clear. Have you explored that prolonging the war is crucial for the Russian economy today unlike pre-invasion, and that has created a new strategy aligned with a new section of the elite around Putin. You sound you are still in the pre-invasion time.
No more replies from Stephen.
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