Nigel Farage: An Afghan male has 22 times more likely chance of being convicted of rape than somebody born in this country.”
Ian Boakes
I have a degree in Statistics and I'm well aware of how data can be represented in misleading ways. However, I just don't believe that young men who enter the UK, uninvited and unauthorised (e.g. across the Channel with no documentation), are less likely to commit crime. The opposite is more likely to be true, whatever the stats might suggest as they just aren't a representative sample of the populations they come from because they went by illegal and perilous routes to get here. That said and done, obviously, lots of them pose no threat but why willingly import the risk when we have enough of our own bad eggs to deal with?
Andrew Grainger
Ian Boakes well, it just goes to show a degree doesn't always guarantee good judgement. You have literally no data, you make an assumption and "believe" this is more likely to be the opposite compared to the situation Nelson describes. And remember, Fraser Nelson is well known to be a journalist and political commentator who is considered Right wing.
Have you considered that you are disputing his claims because they don't fit YOUR confirmation bias?
Where I vaguely have some confluence with your post, is that it cannot be good that we can't FULLY control our borders. And, theoretically, it does lead to the possibility that there's a few 'wrong-uns' amongst them. I'm not comfortable with not knowing who is entering the country either.
Where I then diverge from your statement is the "why take the risk?" part. Why? Because of British values. The ones we should be proud of. Fairness, kindness, compassion, empathy. All the things that the right wing agitators, causing the toxicity, don't give a f*** about. It's also in our interests economically in the medium and long term. As a degree holding statistician, I'm sure you are aware there's plenty of data that shows migrants are a net financial gain for the economy, once they are working. They also fill our skills and job market gaps.
I'm afraid your comment leaves me with the feeling that you have a prejudiced view of asylum seekers.
Himanshu Patel
Being an Indian, I assure you that once we, immigrants get the citizenship, they are more likely to break a law than white counterparts. That is why we have slave maids, honour killing/marriages, uninsured drivers, illegal construction workers, lack of H&S, food hygiene etc in the uk.
Yes the illegal immigrants do not break any law because simply they are afraid of deportation. Once they settle and in the economy, true colours come out. There are more chances that a migrant landlord will accommodate 10 people in his house, than a white native. Check all stabbings in London and tell me which specific group is more involved. Percentage wise they are 5% of total population but 50% cases they are likely involve in these activities.
Yes, murder figures gone down, but not due to migrants. But now more likely you will get caught due to digital foot print, advance DNA analysis and CCTV on every house. So we have no serial killers now. In 80’s and 90’s we had lot. Now they will get caught after the first rape/murder. Human instinct and lawlessness nature is the same as two decades ago, but now it is harder to do criminal activity.
Statistics can be wrong but on the other hand there is no smoke without fire.
Yannic Hudziak
Himanshu Patel except when you look at actual crimes and the punishments given to them you end up noticing that non-whites tend to be punished harsher and for longer on average than white people and worse….
If you restrict it to white people with the ‘right’ sort of name and ‘origin’ this is even more pronounced.
Especially bad when you check who is most likely to commit certain crimes.
In short, a person of colour is more likely to be convicted of a crime given the same evidence and the same crime than a white person and if you have a foreign sounding name you are more likely to be convicted than someone called John for example.
It is not as pronounced as in say… the USA but is distinctly visible when you check it.
I have seen this in thought processes, with students and our teacher showed us the crime, the evidence and than for one case he gave the name (a distinctly Muslim sounding name) and for another case (we were NOT aware these were BOTH the same person by the way) he gave a picture of the criminal who was a well dressed, good looking white male.
The first case was almost across the board punished close to the maximum for the crime, the second case a more even and middle of the road punishment was selected, a mere 25% of the students gave the same punishment to the same crimes with the same evidence.
He did juggle the evidence around so it was not written in the exact same format so it was not immediately obvious it was exactly the same evidence.
Adam Clemerson
Ian Boakes ‘I have a degree in Stats, but I’m going to ignore everything I learned and just go off a gut feel instead…’
Sarah Driver
Interestingly there is a subtle but very important difference in what Farage said. He stated they were more likely to be convicted of a crime NOT commit a crime.
Now we have more factors to consider her. Firstly the arrest and conviction rate. - there is a significant difference between the two. So we need to know the statistics if the CPS chooses to prosecute immigrants proportionally more than British - this you would think depends upon just strength of evidence, but in reality it's on chance of conviction - the two are not necessarily the same.
Secondly depending on the crime - let's take Farage's favourite of those against our women and girls - well there is less than a 10% conviction rate on them, so it seems a lot go unpunished. - see where this is all going now?
Helen Roberts
Sarah Driver that choice of words struck me as significant too. Would love to see a study of level of investigation; arrests and prosecution across racial/class/citizenship statuses compared to cases reported. And then is there a difference in conviction rates across situations too? I know there have been some well noted cases in US where a rich young white man convicted of SA has been given minimum consequences 'as a mistake of youth; no need to ruin his whole future' whilst similar cases for a poor black man is much more severely sentenced.
If there is evidence of prejudice in our systems here then we need to know. (yes the unbalance of rape cases getting properly investigated is already a bias need to address).
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