NM's blog

“Deep political-economic transformations created the context for the events of this month …” What is  their meaning for the future of the Iranian regime? “Roiled from within and menaced from without, what are its chances of survival?”

by Siyǎvash Shahabi Just look at the size of this crowd. These are people who came out fully aware of the risks—live bullets, arrest, even death. This presence is not random, not emotional, and not the result of some outside call. It is a conscious decision by people who feel they have nothing left to lose except humiliation and silence. Anyone who reduces the anger and uprising of Iranians to “foreign interference” or to “Pahlavi” is either not stupid but knowingly lying, or is a racist who does not want Iranians to deserve freedom, dignity, and the right to decide their own future. Or worse, they are someone cheering from afar, treating the clash between East and West like a Colosseum spectacle—applauding a gladiator fight while real people’s lives, futures, and deaths mean nothing to them. Our lives as Iranians cannot be reduced to this naive and stupid “East versus West” binary. We are not pieces on a geopolitical chessboard, and we are not tools for settling power struggles. The p...

An view by Sirantos Fotopoulos The protests now convulsing Iran are the inevitable revolt of a working-class pushed beyond the limits of survival. Inflation has shredded wages, the rial’s collapse has turned food, fuel, and medicine into luxuries, and millions of people who once lived precariously now find themselves unable to make a living at all. Shopkeepers, bazaar merchants, transport workers, students, and casual laborers are protesting the daily violence of an economy organized to extract obedience through deprivation. When bread becomes unaffordable, dissent is the first step towards survival. The Iranian state’s response has been brutally consistent — repression first, reform never. Security forces have met demonstrations with live ammunition, mass arrests, beatings, and intimidation. Internet blackouts attempt to sever workers from one another, isolating struggles city by city. The message is unmistakable: survival is conditional on silent obedience. To demand wages that keep ...

This was published about three months before the ongoing protests.  An article available in 4 languages “ The present crisis is the combined result of past political choices, climate constraints, and economic pressures exacerbated by international sanctions and regional tensions, to which is now added the very real threat of military escalation. For much of the population, this everyday life fuels a feeling of injustice and the constant bitterness of a future with no prospects. Are the absence of ambitious structural reforms and the persistence of external tensions not liable to threaten the country’s internal security and trigger a major internal crisis   ?”

A chapter by Jospeh Daher  in  The Future of the Occupation of the Palestinians Territories After Gaza

“How can the Islamic Republic justify such strict enforcement of mandatory veiling when even the Quran does not explicitly require women to cover their hair?” —  Sedigheh Vasmaghi The “broad spectrum of civil disobedience—from women’s public unveiling to the drafting of charters and statements of solidarity in the post-Jina era—reflects a significant shift in public consciousness and a growing commitment to radical democratic change, despite an unyielding state. Many protesters hope that these cumulative acts of resistance will continue to gain momentum , ultimately paving the way for transformative change.”

A long, but a coherent and encompassing analysis

 

“ Haji Agha  is not merely the name of a fictional character —it is a title that embodies a social type deeply rooted in Iran’s historical class structure…  a kind of historical alliance emerges between religion,  the bazaar , violence, and the state apparatus, whose goal is to suppress public awareness, preserve class hierarchy, and sustain exploitation.”

A long [6400 words] but good summary and analysis by Adam Shatz . Here is a selection: – The United States has given its imprimatur to Israel’s regional hegemony. – When Trump made plain that he wanted Israel to stop bombing [Iran], Netanyahu had little choice but to acquiesce. – Israel also appears to be pursuing a long-range plan to weaken, if not to render defenceless, the other states in the region, so that none is in a position to challenge it. The instability and precariousness of such an order are evident to American and European politicians, but they prefer to remain discreet about them for fear of being accused of sympathy for Hamas or antisemitism. – For all Trump’s triumphalism, the ‘twelve-day war’, far from having ended Iran’s search for a nuclear weapon, may accelerate it. – Israel now has control of the airspace over Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria – almost boundless room for manoeuvre – and has always favoured unilateral military assertion over diplomacy. – Netanyahu ...

“On one hand, we have the symbolic violence of intellectual gatekeeping, where certain voices—usually elite, often Western—decide which suffering is legitimate and which resistance is ‘too Western’, ‘too liberal’, or ‘not authentic enough’. On the other, we have the remnants of Orientalism living on in reverse: an unwillingness to confront tyranny when it wears traditional clothes or speaks the language of anti-imperialism. “Bourdieu showed us how elites define what counts as legitimate knowledge. Said exposed how empire produces false knowledge in order to rule. But what neither could have fully foreseen is this third form: where knowledge cloaked in anti-imperialist jargon becomes a tool to delegitimize resistance .” Here is an example: Tariq Ali cannot being himself to go beyond 'geopolitics' to sociology . There is not a single mention of the Iranian society, power relations, repression, etc., and how all that is related to 'geopolitics'. 

What response is possible for society when politics has been erased? Today, Iran is trapped between two silences —the one forced from within by the regime, and the one from outside, as the world turns away from what’s happening.”

According to Al-Jazeera

NYT, 19 June 2025

“Even if the US does not bomb Iran, it will continue to arm Israel. Either way, there will be serious implications for the Middle East and US politics. “Labour Party meetings and trade union meetings should pass resolutions demanding an end to the assault on Iran and further demanding that Britain should play no role in the attack on Iran, either directly or indirectly and socialists should support demonstrations, lobbies and rallies to that effect.” Even if resolutions were passed they would be defeated by Starmer and the right of the Labour Party.

“And just as Israel’s allies in the region have already helped shoot down Iranian missiles, we can be certain that Western governments will come readily to Israel’s defence — both rhetorically and materially — ensuring it can continue its attacks.  “This is the overwhelming lesson Israel has drawn from the past 20 months amid its intensifying onslaught on Gaza: there is no limit to what the world will let it get away with. Now, as it bombs its sixth neighbouring state or occupied territory in less than two years, there should be no doubt that impunity is the lifeblood of Israel’s far-right government, and the fuel driving its spiralling aggression. Until it runs up against firm international resistance, it will not cease in its campaign to militarily re-engineer the entire region.” International resistance is not specified. Personally, I understand that Ben Reif means governments  resistance. Reif like any liberal and a few leftists has faith in 'international l...

There is an opinion article on Middle East Monitor. Junaid S. Ahmad uses the word 'betrayal'. I think he is wrong. Every word has to be put beside its opposite when we look at life. Betrayal implies there was loyalty and faithfulness. That is misleading and no wonder there are still many people you see on the social media arguing for Arab unity and that Arab leaders should do something like building a united force, etc. Illusion is fundamental for the powerless . Arab regime have either used the Palestinian plight or ignored it altogether. Their interests and the interests of the Arab capitalists are so entangled with Western and Israeli interests. Then Ahmad frequently uses the phrase 'Muslim world'. There is no nuch a thing, as there is no such a thing as 'the free world'. There are different and very divided countries from Indonesia to Mauritania with not only different historical development, especially since the formal independence, but also even antagonist...

“Among all world regions, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) holds the worst record for workers’ rights. The index data by the  International Trade Union Confederation “ shows that  every country  in the MENA region has blocked the formation or membership of  independent trade unions . In other words, the legal and administrative systems in these countries are deliberately structured to prevent any form of autonomous labor organization.  95%  of countries in the region violate the right to strike, and  89%  restrict freedom of assembly and speech. Even when rights exist on paper, the actual space to exercise them is closed off. In  84%  of MENA countries, workers have  no effective access to justice —meaning that when their rights are violated, there is no real legal or institutional recourse. “In 2014, Europe had an average score of  1.84 , suggesting relatively strong protections. But by 2024, the average has fallen to...

It is good to stay up to date with 'geopolitics', but political science without political economy does not reveal a more accurate picture of the world.

“There is no alternative, I concluded. The delusion of democracy was a colonial concoction (a world capitalist ruse) that is now exposed for what it is and over and done with - we've hit a wall with pictures of Trump, Modi, Assad, Sisi, Ayatollah Khamenei, Putin, and the rest of them plastered all over it. This is the case unless, like Hannah Arendt, we make a crucial distinction between freedom from tyranny and liberty to choose a different political system. At this point in history, I have therefore concluded, we are far more invested in freedom from tyranny than harbouring any conviction or trust in liberty to choose a legitimate alternative state. I am now convinced we are far better off understanding what has tormented us and despising it than hoping to achieve what we wish and has historically escaped us.”